Veröffentlicht in China News am 22.10.2026

China News: The Quiet Realignment: Why Stagnant Imports Drive China’s Trade Surplus

China’s high and persistent trade surpluses are due just as much to stagnant import growth as to rising exports.

Key Arguments and Key Findings

Stagnating Imports: While China’s total import values have remained at a constant level or stagnated in recent years, a profound shift lies beneath the surface: a sustained decline in imports of manufactured goods, offset by an increase in raw material imports. Imports of non-raw materials had already peaked in 2021, and China’s share of global imports fell from 10.1% in 2021 to 7.7% in 2025.

The dynamics of the “China Shock 2.0”: Unlike in previous trade cycles, imports of manufactured goods—which account for nearly 60% of China’s total imports—peaked in 2021 at $1.54 trillion and have remained unchanged since then. During the same period, China’s export engine has gained momentum, widening the trade surplus.

Two overlapping forces driving the import slump:

1. Import substitution and self-sufficiency: China is rapidly replacing foreign-made goods with its own production capacity and growing technological expertise. The greatest displacement effects are observed in motor vehicles and auto parts, steel, machinery, robots, medical devices, chemicals, and labor- and resource-intensive industrial goods (imports of which fell by 19.5% between 2021 and 2025). Domestic brands are increasingly displacing foreign suppliers.

2. Weak domestic demand: Subdued household consumption—partly linked to the weakness of the real estate sector and a high propensity to save—has kept imports of consumer goods at a low level. China’s share of consumer goods imports peaked at 6% in 2021, while its share of exports stood at 16.2% in 2022.

Structural Breakdown by Product Group

Industrial Goods: China’s global share of imports of intermediate goods peaked in 2020, while its export share rose to a record high of 17% by 2025. Imports of capital goods plummeted from 12.3% of the global total in 2021 to 8.6% in 2025, while exports of capital goods remained at a historically high level of over 20%.

Commodities vs. Industrial Goods: Commodities (fuels, agricultural commodities, ores, and metals) account for about 40% of imports and were subject to fluctuations primarily driven by global price shifts resulting from geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, manufactured goods (the remaining 60%) show a significant structural shift.

Policy Implications

Realigning global trade requires more than just managing export competitiveness. To address China’s trade surplus, domestic consumption must be stimulated through structural reforms—for example, by increasing households’ share of national income and reducing incentives to save—which would help boost imports of consumer goods and services.